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Fire OblationTier 1
at Card Nation Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.6% | +5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.8% | -11.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.4% | +20.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Feu Awakening | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Folded Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |